Ahead of the 2016 election, Trump's then attorney Michael Cohen paid $130,000 to keep adult film actress Stormy Daniels from going public with her story of an alleged sexual encounter with Trump. Cohen has testified that Trump told him to pay Daniels, then signed off on a roundabout reimbursement scheme. Prosecutors have charged Trump — who categorized his payments to Cohen as legal fees — with 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal criminal activity. Have you been following this case?

The share of Americans who think Trump did, in fact, falsify business records has increased by 4 points since last month, and by 7 points since March 2023. The shares of that group who think Trump committed a crime in doing so (47%) and who say that crime is serious enough to warrant indictment and a trial (40%) are higher than ever before as well. Which do you agree with? Select all that apply.

Could a conviction have political consequences for Trump? Possibly. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump (45%) and President Biden (45%) remain tied among registered voters, just like they were last month. But when voters are asked which candidate they would vote for "if Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months," just 39% say the former president — while Biden's backing ticks up 1 point in that scenario, to 46%, giving him a 7-point advantage. Which candidate would you vote for if Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months?